Randwick Race 5 – G1 Australian Oaks – 2400m
#6 Duais – $14
#7 Bargain – $13
Confident the Adrian Knox is the best form line leading into this, which saw Duais hold off the fast-finishing Bargain. Interestingly, Bargain (2000m) ran a near-identical last furlong to Masked Crusader (1200m) on the day and the 3rd fastest last 200m for the entire meeting, she has to concede Duais 3kg’s but gets the services of J Mac. They will both run better than the odds suggest.
Randwick Race 7 – G1 Sydney Cup – 3200m
#13 Realm Of Flowers – $6
Looks an out and out stayer, the sort of horse that would run on at the end of the Grand Annual. Should have beaten Favourite Moon last start and was far superior through the line after a tougher run in transit, gets a 1kg weight swing too.
Randwick Race 8 – G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes – 2000m
#3 Mugatoo – $7.5
I concede he was a shade plain over the final stages after looking the winner in the Doncaster, but if you forgive that run, he has super form lines to be competitive here. Ran identical splits home to Verry Elleegant first up, flogged Sir Dragonet in the All-Star Mile and might just be looking for 2000m now. A little bit of rain would not hurt either.
Randwick Race 9 – G1 Queen Of The Turf – 1600m
#6 Quantum Mechanic $17
#12 Vangelic $15
Quantum Mechanic was very good late when making up ground out wide on the track where it was hard to run on. Run was similar to Icebath who nearly won the Doncaster. Vangelic has had little luck this prep, freshened and although not as well in the weights as last start, can run well here. Both should get lovely runs just behind a hot speed.
Brisbane Broncos ($12.50) VS Penrith Panthers ($1.03) – Suncorp Stadium
Big line of 28 points and that seems about the mark, Brisbane’s forward pack has the ability to keep this close enough in the first half before Penrith run away. The talented (some say cocky) young Panthers to silence the critics;
Suggested Bet – Same Game Multi – Charlie Staines and Matt Burton anytime try scorer @ $3.21
Melbourne Storm ($1.36) VS Sydney Roosters ($3.10) – AAMI Park
The Storm will take pleasure in targeting young gun Sam Walker, expect big Nelson to target him relentlessly. Whilst the backlines are full of star power, expect this to be a real slog in the middle of the field, especially early. Storm to execute a game plan.
Suggested Bet – Melbourne Storm -8.5 @ $2
West Coast Eagles ($1.33) VS Collingwood ($3.35) – Optus Stadium
West Coast has been very good at home and I expect that to continue against a Pies side that was well beaten against a depleted GWS outfit.
Suggested Bet – West Coast Eagles -22.5 @ $2
Carlton ($2.10) VS Port Adelaide ($1.75) – MCG
Should be a decent clash and both teams will fancy their chances. Port’s only loss was at Optus Stadium against West Coast and I fancy they have the superior form lines coming into this after beating Richmond after the siren last round.
Suggested bet – Port Adelaide -5.5 @ $1.90
UFC Vegas 24: Whittaker vs Gastelum
Jeremy Stephens ($1.80) VS Drakkar klose ($2.02)
Both are aggressive and this shapes as developing into a real brawl with a knockout being the most likely of results. I lean to Klose.
Suggested Bet – Method of victory 7-way – Drakkar Klose by KO/TKO @ $5.50
Robert Whittaker ($1.35) VS Kelvin Gastelum ($3.15)
Aussie Robert Whittaker is the number 1 contender and since losing to Israel Adesanya in 2019 he has back to back wins against Darren Till and Jarrod Cannonier. A win will get him a title rematch with Israel. Gastelum lost a close decision in an epic fight with Israel in 2019, then lost 3 in a row before winning his latest.
Suggested bet – Method of victory 7-way – Robert Whittaker by points @ $2.35