May 11, 2022

Round 9 Preview

Melbourne remains undefeated after downing St Kilda last week and they run into a favourable schedule starting with West Coast this week. Are the Tigers back? Can the Saints bounce back? Can the Blues make it 3 straight wins?

Let’s find out shall we…

Pies ($2.25) vs Bulldogs ($1.65)

  • Both lost 3 of their last 5
  • Pies lost to Richmond
  • Dogs lost to Port
  • 9th v 10th

This should be a cracking clash to open the round with both teams coming off losses and looking to improve on their records that have seen both win 3 from their last 5, and sit 9th and 10th on the ladder respectively. Bont’s inclusion after being rested last week is sure to add a spark back to the Dogs.

Hawks ($3.30) vs Tigers ($1.33)

  • Tigers searching for a hat-trick of wins
  • Dusty back and Lynch firing
  • How did Hawthorn lose last week?!

Hawthorn would like their time over again after being the better side for the majority of the game before falling short of Essendon’s inspired comeback. Richmond on the other hand welcomed Dusty back by duly saluting against Collingwood in a match that saw Tom Lynch bag six goals. If Hawthorn bring their last quarter last week into this match they’re in huge strife!

Nth Melb ($5.50) vs Port ($1.15)

  • Port back from the dead!
  • Downed West Coast, Saints & Dogs in succession
  • North have covered the line in 20 of 28 games at Blundstone

Despite North being a terrible side for some time, they are consistently a great bet in their adopted home. They have covered the start in 20 of 28 games at Blundstone and in five of their last six. After starting the year 0-5, some pundits are declaring Port back on track after three straight wins, but the quality of each of these wins has to be questioned. The Kangas can cover in a wet and cold Tassie.

Saints ($2.15) vs Cats ($1.70)

  • Back to back losses for Saints
  • Goalless first term for Saints last week
  • Typical Geelong bounce back last week

Geelong did what they do best last round by putting their previous loss to Fremantle behind them quickly by bouncing back to convincingly defeat GWS. With Hawkins and Cameron kicking goals for fun, they can improve on their already good record against the Saints who have been notoriously slow starters.

Swans ($1.30) vs Bombers ($3.50)

  • Bombers with a comeback win for the ages!
  • Swans desperate to avoid back to back losses
  • Swans will no doubt want to be more polished in front of goal this round

No doubt Sydney’s head coach John Longmire will have spent most of this week’s time at training addressing their goal kicking. They kicked 8 goals with 13 behinds against Gold Coast last match and it must also be said that they lacked their usual polish around clearances. The Bombers, where did that last quarter come from last week?! Can they reproduce that effort? No.

Crows ($4.40) vs Lions ($1.22)

  • Brisbane smashed West Coast as expected
  • Dan McStay suffered an ankle injury
  • Lions looking for 4 in a row against the Crows

Adelaide have shown they can push teams, having done that against Freo and the Bulldogs, but if Chris Fagan’s men turn up – this one is over! The Lions have started slowly when on the road previously this season, I expect them to address that and explode out of the gates and win well.

Suns ($2.55) vs Dockers ($1.52)

  • Dockers won 6 in a row and 2nd on the ladder
  • Freo flogged the Suns last year in Perth
  • Suns too good for the Swans last week
  • Intriguing clash!

The Dockers have now managed to win 6 on the trot and currently sit 2nd on the ladder behind Melbourne. They come up against a Suns side that was too good for the Swans last match and it will be intriguing to see whether the Dockers can methodically dismantle Gold Coast. Freo’s form is just simply too good to ignore in this, they’ll continue on their winning ways.

Giants ($1.73) vs Blues ($2.10)

  • Blues currently 4th on the ladder
  • Cripps firming in Brownlow betting
  • Carlton lost to the Giants twice last year

Scoring has been the biggest issue for the Giants, a big concern considering they come up against one of the best forward pairings in the competition. There’s plenty of rain tipped to fall in Sydney and there seems no doubt this will be a sloppy and scrappy affair in the mud. Carlton can win this by dominating the midfield in tricky conditions.

Eagles ($17) vs Melbourne ($1.01)

  • Thoughts and prayers for West Coast

The result looks a foregone conclusion, it’s just a matter of the margin. West Coast have now suffered consecutive losses of 60 points or more and I’m happy to back the premiers to cover the line.

Good luck & good punting!

*All prices and lines are correct as of the time of writing & are courtesy of Ladbrokes, who are offering $2 lines on Friday & Sunday games during Round 9. T&C’s apply, check their website for more details.

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