Round 5 Preview
We put the first month of footy behind us and we’re starting to get a decent idea of who the contenders and who the pretenders are. There are some mouth-watering clashes this round, let’s find some winners shall we…
Lions ($1.18) vs Collingwood ($5)
- Lions great at the Gabba
- Both sitting in the top 8
- Lions now 2nd favourites in premiership betting at $6
The Lions can feel a little hard done by in their first loss of the season against the Cats at GMHBA last week after some contentious calls went against them. Despite those calls, the Lions will be disappointed in some key areas, especially in regards to their attack. The Pies came out of the gates flying to start the season but have now suffered back to back losses.
Nth Melb ($5.40) vs Bulldogs ($1.16)
- Bevo feeling the pressure
- North showed some ticker in defeat
- Bulldogs just the 1 win and desperate
- This game was a mere formality at the start of the season…
At the start of the season, this Good Friday clash wasn’t a question of if the dogs would win, but by how much? How a few weeks of footy changes things! The dogs are desperate, and the Kangas are coming off a gallant showing against the Swans. Can the Kangas win and heap more pressure on Bevo and his team? Or will the real dogs be let out and show some of the flair we expected after last year’s grand final run? I’ll take the Kangas with the start.
Eagles ($2.55) vs Swans ($1.52)
- Tough start to 2022 for West Coast but tough win against the Pies
- Buddy subbed off last week
- Optus Stadium a big boost for Eagles
West Coast recorded their first victory of the season with a tough win over Collingwood. Covid protocols in the west looked set to derail their season and things get tougher with Nic Nat set to join an already lengthy absentee list. The Swans have concerns of their own with Buddy being subbed out of the game in the 3rd quarter with a finger injury. The Swans did it the tough way last week and I reckon at home, West Coast can make a game of this.
St Kilda ($1.35) vs Suns ($3.25)
- Saints the most surprising team in 2022 sitting in the top 4
- Saints 69 point victors last week
- Suns ended Carlton’s undefeated streak
- Closer than expected contest
After a demolition job at the MCG, the Saints are marching confidently to Marvel this week with a chance to solidify themselves in the top 4. They will face a Suns outfit that ended the Blues undefeated streak at Metricon. Whilst the Saints have been surprisingly good this season since their first round loss, I’m tipping this game to be much closer than the market suggests. Back the Suns +19.5.
Crows ($2.15) vs Richmond ($1.70)
- 3 of the Crows last 4 decided by 4 points or less with just the 1 win amongst them
- That win was an after the siren win in The Showdown
- Tigers kicking straight – 55 goals with 38 behinds
The Crows have just the one win this season, and of course it was an after the siren win against their biggest rivals, but all of their games have been decided by 4 points or less. Scoring doesn’t seem to be an issue, but conceding certainly is. Richmond heaped further pressure on the Bulldogs last week, even though they were;t at their best, they still managed to polish off the Doggies. At home, the Crows can win this.
Melbourne ($1.16) vs GWS ($5.40)
- Melbourne flying!
- GWS inconsistent but talented
- Great test for where the Giants are at in 2022
- Good teams win, great teams cover – Will the Dees?
Melbourne remains the only team undefeated in 2022 – an ominous warning for the entire competition. For a fifth straight win, they will need to overcome a supremely talented Giants outfit that will no doubt be confident, after beating the demons at the G last year! Melbourne to win but not run away with it.
Carlton ($1.57) vs Port ($2.45)
- Blues dropped their first game of the season last week
- Bluebaggers get blindsided or will they slump?
- Port staring down an 0 and 5 start
Was the 30 point loss to the Suns in round 4 merely a blip in the Blues upward trajectory, or has the first crack started to appear after a hot start to 2022? We are about to find out. They come up against a preseason flag fancy, who simply must win to avoid a detrimental 0 and 5 start.
Essendon ($1.88) vs Fremantle ($1.92)
- Dons on the board!
- Really even contest
- Bombers won 14 of last 15 home matches against Freo
The dons are on the board! The Bombers army are on their feet and desperate for back-to-back wins. They will need to be on their game if they want to beat the boys from the west, who are sneaking along under the radar with a great start to 2022. As the market suggests, this is a tough game to assess. I’m going to have something on Michael Frederick to kick 2+ goals @ $2.85.
Hawks ($3) vs Cats ($1.40)
- Hawks staring down the barrel of 3 straight losses
- Cats took care of the Lions
- Easter Monday footy – how good!
The easter Monday Showdown has some extra intrigue this year! Has the Hawks bubble burst following 2 losses in a row which included a horror belting by the Saints in round 4? They face a Cats outfit that continues to evolve its attacking game and looks poised to again make a run towards September. If the Cats a serious contenders, they need to be winning and winning well.
Good luck & good punting!
*All prices and lines are correct as of the time of writing & are courtesy of Ladbrokes, who are offering $2 lines on Thursday & Friday games during Round 5. T&C’s apply, check their website for more details.
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