There’s Group racing galore at Rosehill highlighted by the two Group 1’s – the Tancred Stakes & Vinery Stud Stakes. Both are intriguing editions of the time-honoured races and both look to have good betting opportunities. Before Mornington takes centre stage in Mexico with their stand-alone Mornington Cup meeting (where Pondus might be a deadset good thing!), there’s the Friday Night Lights action from Moonee Valley with the running of the Group 1 William Reid.
It’s great to have both footy codes up and about, life just seems better when there’s footy to watch on the box from Thursday through to Sunday (with the occasional Monday of course!) Each & every week you can get our full preview of the footy rounds with suggested bets, some banter & occasionally, a collect or three! You can check them out here:
Friday Night Lights
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Carlton Draught Emma Boling – 1200m
#2 Zarastro – $2.80
Happy to forgive last start where he was a beaten favourite, he was 1st up down the straight & pulled up lame. Willo replaces Froggy in the saddle & he maps perfectly. His prior form in his first prep suggests this is the perfect race for him. I’ll back Waller to have him fit & he’s the one to beat. Use your ‘SWITCH‘ promo to double your winnings or Bonus back for 2nd or 3rd. (T&C’s apply – check Ladbrokes website for details)
Moonee Valley Race 7 – G1 William Reid – 1200m
#9 Marabi – $1.75
To be honest, I went searching for something to beat her but couldn’t find anything. This is as weak of a Group 1 sprinting field you will see. She has the speed to burn them off at the start & brings the Group 1 form through the Oakleigh Plate, where she bolted in. If she holds her form she just wins. Use your ODDS BOOST for a little extra gravy if you can.
Rosehill Race 2 – G3 Schweppervescence – 1400m
#2 Boyfriend – $4.40/$1.95
He’s hardly put a foot wrong all prep and looks the one who has been crying out for the 1400m. The gate is a shade tricky but with the blinkers going on I’d expect him to push forward from the wide alley. He’ll be strong through the line and looks an easy each way bet to have.
Rosehill Race 4 – G2 Tulloch Stakes – 2000m
#4 Maurice’s Medad – $9.50/$3.20
He was good in the Hobartville behind Anamoe before being set a tough task last start in the Group 1 Australian Guineas. He was asked to do too much work in that race & it told in the end. He gets gate 1 here with little speed engaged. He’ll most likely box seat & get the run of the race. Over the odds & a terrific each way bet!
Rosehill Race 7 – G1 Tancred Stakes – 2400m
#11 Duais – $2.90
She was phenomenal in the Group 1 Australian Cup last start & there is no reason why she can’t replicate that performance in this. As long as there is no massive leader bias on the day, she looks the best bet in the country!
Rosehill Race 8 – G1 Vinery Stud Stakes – 2000m
#6 Gypsy Goddess – $4.20
It’s rare that Queensland staying form ever stacks up but this girl might be something special. She was 84 days between runs last start but that didn’t stop her from bolting in & winning like a really good horse. Pike jumps on & Vandyke is excellent at placing his horses, he’s not here to make up numbers. Most of these have intertwined form & there doesn’t appear to be a lot between them, I’m more than keen to go with the different form line. She’ll be very hard to beat.
Mornington Race 6 – LISTED Mornington Cup – 2400m
#2 Pondus – $2.70
He was back to his brilliant best last week when bolting in at Flemington. The quick back up suits, the 2400m is ideal, and maps to get the dream run. He could bolt in here!
Storm ($1.55) vs Eels ($2.50)
- Harry Grant. That is all. That’s the comment.
- Parra less than convincing to start the season
- This is a mouth-watering clash of two big packs
- Paulo & RCG vs NAS & J-Brom
- Stom bench very weak
- Expect a tight tussle
The Storm are tough to beat anywhere but especially at home. That said, if Parra can stay in the game for the first 60 mins, the 2nd stint of Paulo & RCG can wear down a Storm pack that is a little light-on on the bench. We saw the Bunnies nearly pinch it late last week and I’m tipping something similar here. Parra can cause an upset & I’ll be backing them to. What could go wrong?!
Broncos ($1.53) vs Cowboys ($2.50)
- Everyone is sleeping on the Cows
- This shapes as a cracker!
- Battle of the halves – Reynolds v Chad
- Battle of the big men – Haas v Lolo
Historically, there is rarely anything between these two sides of late. I can’t understand how Brisbane are such strong favourites in this, they were flattered by the Dogs lack of attack last week. Lolo, Payten & the Cows look to be building into a big season, one that I think can see them play finals footy. They’ll win & win well.
Essendon ($2.85) vs Lions ($1.42)
- Oh Bombers fans…It’s a tough gig…
- Lions roared home against Port (awful pun!)
- Daniher (4 goals) & Neale (31 disposals) both excellent
- 40+ margins between these two in last 3 matches
Quite strangely the favourite in the last 3 clashes between these 2 has run out 40+ margin winners. The Lions are always better at the Gabba but the Bombers were made to look second rate against Geelong and doubt their situation gets any easier with Daniher, Neale and co. Lions 40+.
Suns ($4.10) vs Melbourne ($1.24)
- Both victorious in the opening round
- Petracca – 38 disposals, 9 clearances & 2 goals!
- Suns beat up on a depleted West Coast
- Last time they met – Dees 128 to Suns 30
Talking through my kick, it was great to see the Suns start the season hot (oh man, these puns are getting worse!) but they face a completely different level of opposition in this. Melbourne picked up where they left off last season by thrashing the Dogs. Petracca was immense last week and better than even money for him to kick to goals is too big for me to ignore!
Punt Club Crew
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*All prices and lines are correct as of the time of writing & are courtesy of Ladbrokes, who are offering $2 lines on ALL AFL games this Round & for Thurs & Fri matches in the NRL. T&C’s apply, check their website for more details.