Move over Nadia Comaneci and Bo Derek, the Punt Club’s NRL Guru has come up with the best 10 unit play you’ll ever see this week. What he lacks in flexibility and good looks, he’ll make up for with a score of profits. And full marks to Ladbrokes as they continue to provide their generous $2 lines each week for the punters.
2.5 units Souths/Melbourne to Win @1.85
2 units New Zealand Warriors +14.5 @2.00
2 units Manly Sea Eagles +4.5 @2.00
2 units Gold Coast Titans +22.5 @2.00
1 unit Canberra Raiders Margin 1-12 @3.00
0.5 units Bris/Cronulla Half/Full Double @7.00
NRL Round 12 Match Previews
StG/Ill Dragons vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Assessed Line: Dragons +5.5
Ladbrokes: Dragons +4.5
In one of rugby league’s greatest rivalries, the Dragons are at home to the Rabbitohs, with both teams on a 5-day backup. Merrin and Clune are out for a reshuffled Saints outfit whilst Souths welcome back Latrell in time for Indigenous Round. This is traditionally a hard-fought contest but I’m expecting the talented Rabbitohs indigenous players to play a key role and having won 8 of their past 10 clashes with St.George, they deserve favouritism and should win.
Wests Tigers vs New Zealand Warriors
Assessed Line: Tigers -12.0
Ladbrokes: Tigers -14.5
The inconsistent Warriors lifted for their farewell players last week and pushed the Roosters all the way. However, in typical Warriors style, a let down is expected to follow and the Tigers will be ready to pounce, desperate to move out of their dreaded 9th spot on the ladder. But despite some key players headed home to NZ, the Warriors get other troops back plus a couple of decent loan players rushed in. I think the bookies have underrated this Warriors side and the big plus is value, especially against a Tigers outfit that can struggle against opponents they are expected to beat easily.
Brisbane Broncos vs Cronulla Sharks
Assessed Line: Broncos +4.0
Ladbrokes: Broncos +4.5
In a wet round 11, where every other match was decided by a margin of 1-12, the Broncos somehow managed to lose by 38! On top of that, arguably their best player has signed with rival club Gold Coast – how Anthony Seibold is still coaching is anyone’s guess?! And, incredibly, in 5 of their past 7 games, they have failed to score even a single point in the second half. Simply for that reason, I’m speculating the Broncos might lead at halftime, only to get run down by a Cronulla outfit who is definitely capable of scoring points. Value bet for the exotic players.
Sydney Roosters vs Gold Coast Titans
Assessed Line: Roosters -19.5
Ladbrokes: Roosters -22.5
The Titans aimed up last week at home against a depleted Panthers outfit but still only managed an 8 point loss in the wet. They face a much tougher assignment this week at a dry SCG against a Roosters team who have beaten them on 7 of their past 8 meetings and will be looking to get back on track with an impressive win after a scratchy month. But 22.5 is a big start in anyone’s language and worth a small confidence play as the Titans are improving weekly and the Roosters are still a little off their game for mine.
North Qld Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders
Assessed Line: Cowboys +8.0
Ladbrokes: Cowboys +8.0
A very disappointing Cowboys outfit should be competitive at home but the Raiders are playing surprisingly good footy without Hodgson and this week welcomes back Bateman in a huge boost for their season. The betting market is assessed spot on here and the Raiders by 8 is the most likely outcome. I’m expecting them to grind out the win away from home and a margin bet is worth a small play.
Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers
Assessed Line: Sea Eagles +2.5
Ladbrokes: Sea Eagles +4.5
Another tricky affair for Penrith this week, they play their second consecutive away game and must travel to “fortress Brookie” against a gritty Manly side who have now strung 2 wins together without Turbo Tom and Dylan Walker. Admittedly, the Sea Eagles have only won 2 of their past 10 clashes with the Panthers but they have been much closer contests than the stats would have you believe. It’s hard to knock a Penrith team that just keeps winning but the feeling here is that they are due for a loss, and this could very well be the match.
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Parramatta Eels
Assessed Line: Bulldogs +16.0
Ladbrokes: Bulldogs +16.5
The Bulldogs sprung a big upset against the Knights in round 11 but were aided by some atrocious weather and a horrible set of injuries to their opposition. They now face a rampant Parramatta side who will be well-rested and at full strength. Back on a dry track, Brad Arthur will make sure the Eels won’t “slip” up like Newcastle (and Mitchell Moses!) did last week. However, no meat on the bone to invest here.
Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights
Assessed Line: Storm -13.5
Ladbrokes: Storm -13.5
On face value, this looks an impossible task for the Knights. They are coming off a home loss against the bottom of the ladder Bulldogs, sustaining key injuries in the process and now have to travel away to play an unstoppable Melbourne outfit who have beaten them 8 times in a row, and by big margins! There is no value in the big line but for multi-players the Storm just to win is a very safe anchor bet.
Good luck and great punting,
Punt Club NRL Guru