Cranbourne Race 4 – Shooting Star (C3) – 1500m
#3 Real Sensation – $3.60
He’s a deserving favourite in this. Third up now & rock hard fit on the 7 day back up. First up, he had little luck and savaged the line late. Second up and last start, he got well back at Flemington in a much tougher race and worked home well. Can make use of the inside gate and be no worse than midfield & will relish the drop back in class. D Lane on a plus too. The one to beat.
BACK REAL SENSATION TO WIN
Cranbourne Race 5 – Rosemont Stud Fillies & Mares Pendant – 1400m
#2 Belle Plaisir – $10/$2.50 & #4 Paul’s Regret – $10/$2.50
They both come out of the same race as the favourite who had little luck, but that’s April Rain, she always needs luck due to her racing pattern and she looks under the odds at even money. Belle Plaisir and Paul’s Regret both beat her home in that and under the same weight scale. They will both get lovely runs on the speed and more than happy to back both each way to beat the favourite again.
BACK BELLE PLAISIR & PAUL’S REGRET EACH WAY
Cranbourne Race 6 – Apache Cat Classic – 1000m
#7 Sir Kalahad – $13/$3.30
He’s no spring chicken being a 7yo now but he’s been racing in good form with little luck. In his last two starts he has been forced to race wide without cover and not beaten far after boxing on well after tough runs. Had an 800m jump out prior to this and looked very sharp. From gate 1 he won’t be wide and working, instead he can conserve energy behind a hot speed and looks a ripping each way chance. Will need a touch of luck at some point but he’ll race well in this at big odds. Each way all day.
BACK SIR KAlAHAD EACH WAY
Cranbourne Race 7 – Cranbourne Cup – 1600m
#8 In A Twinkling – $41/$9.50
It’s a wide open race and I am going for a bit of a hero play! It will cost us nothing to back it each way at massive odds and if I’m right, you owe me beers for the rest of the year! He’s an ex Kiwi galloper having his first start for gun trainer Lindsey Smith, he was well beaten in his last two runs there with the last being in the G1 Auckland Cup over 2 miles but his runs prior are right up to this. He’s had 3 jump outs in preparation for this where he finished alongside Fifth Position who came out and ran really well on Oaks Day at Flemington. Be a hero and have something on at bolters odds!
BACK THE ROUGHIE IN A TWINKLING EACH WAY IN THE CUP
RNewcastle Race 6 – The Beauford – 2300m
#7 Hush Writer – $7.50/$2.30 & Sweet Thomas – $51/$9
Hush Writer was easily beaten last start by Torrens but went around $4 there and just worked way too hard out front and had to tire late. It’s a hard horse to catch as he doesn’t win often but he’ll make his own luck on speed and his best is good enough to win this. Don’t let Sweet Thomas get under your guard, was flattened in the Newcastle race 2 starts ago that Great House won & then down the track at Flemington. Has trialled twice since then and looked ok and his best is good enough to give this a shake, should get a soft trip in transit and can run on late.
HAVE SOMETHING ON HUSH WRITER & SWEET THOMAS AT ODDS
Newcastle Race 7 – G3 Spring Stakes – 1600m
#3 Holstein – $13/$3.80
It was no fluke his win last start over Lease. He should be suited by the mile and brings a solid rating base into this. He’ll need a little luck from a tricky alley but if he gets it, he’ll be powering home like last start. Looks over the odds.
BACK HOLSTEIN EACH WAY IN THE SPRING STAKES
Newcastle Race 8 – The Hunter – 1300m
#7 Standout – $19 & #8 Dawn Passage – $12 & #10 Sweet Deal – $34
I have to take on race favourite Lost And Running from the wide alley in this. Standout and Dawn Passage both get decent weight swings in their favour from last start behind him. Standout gets a lovely run and is honest. Dawn Passage was forced to do it tough last start wide without cover and gets a better run. Sweet Deal is third up now and has two peak runs that can win this, she is ready to do something now. A three pronged attack against the favourite!
TAKE ON LOST AND RUNNING AND BACK THESE THREE
Washington Football Team ($4) VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($1.25) – FedExField
Over 51 Total Points – $1.90
Washington hasn’t scored well recently due to them missing field goals, turnovers and an inability to convert 4th down opportunities. They can turn that around here and score 20 ish points. Tampa will have no trouble racking up the points having scored 24+ in 17 of their last 18 games, averaging 32.5 ppg this season. Both sides like to play fast and throw the pigskin which is an ideal scenario for overs backers.
BACK THE OVERS & CHEER POINTS
CRICKET – T20 WORLD CUP FINAL
New Zealand ($2.35) VS Australia ($1.60)
At the risk of sounding Un-Australian, I’m liking the neighbours from across the ditch to take this one out. The Kiwis don’t have the best lineup on paper but one thing they have shown for a long time now, in all forms of cricket, is they are a unit and play as one. This was highlighted by the relatively unknown Daryl Mitchell blazing 72 runs in their semi final win over England. Someone always stands up and delivers for the team. The Aussies have a class edge but under pressure in a big game, if Smith and Warner don’t fire, it could be trouble for a hit and miss middle order.
BACK NZ TO WIN THE T20 WORLD CUP