Origin 1 turned into nothing more than a training run for the Blues, who were miles too good for a QLD side that looked way off the pace. Round 14 will be greatly affected by Origin stars not backing up, or struggling to back up. We’ll see if we can find an angle or two in, to try and make some coin.
Ladbrokes have $2 lines for Thursday and Friday’s games, this might not sound like much but in today’s climate, it is something worth taking advantage of where possible. If you drive for 20 minutes for cheaper fuel, you need to be taking the $2 line as opposed to $1.90!
Manly Sea Eagles ($1.53) VS North Queensland Cowboys ($2.50) – 4 Pines Park (Brookvale)
Manly will be looking to farewell club legend ‘Bozo’ Fulton in this. Turbo misses this clash and will be keeping his hammys on ice after his dominant performance in Origin, he is obviously a massive loss, none bigger in the game. The Cows come into this with one of the worst backlines in the comp, a new halfback and have shifted Coen Hess back to 2nd row, where he was awful in defence. This has the hallmarks of being a close, thrilling game.
Suggested Bet – North Queensland Cowboys +5.5 @ $2 and sneaky bet on the 80 min draw @ $16
Cronulla Sharks ($2.45) VS Penrith Panthers ($1.55) – Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
A practically full strength Sharks face a Panthers side that is again decimated by Origin. Captain Cleary, his halves partner Luai, and metre eater To’o are big losses. We saw the Tigers hand Penrith their first defeat of the season last week, and if the Sharks bring their best, they can overcome the depleted Panthers.
Suggested Bet – Cronulla Sharks +4.5 @ $2
Gold Coast Titans ($3.60) VS Sydney Roosters ($1.26) – Cbus Super Stadium
The Titans have been a bit hit and miss this season, they were flogged by Cronulla before they went down by 6 points to the Storm, a game they should have won. The Roosters welcome back a few troops and expect them to play well, but Fifita and Tino really have a point to prove after Origin and I expect them to make one in this. It won’t be pretty but the Titans can cover.
Suggested Bet – Gold Coast Titans +12 @ $1.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.16) VS Newcastle Knights ($5.25) – Stadium Australia
The Bunnies look like being with Cam Murray and Damien Cook, assuming Latrell backs up after a dominant display in Origin. The dangerous left side is largely still intact for Souths and they are up against a Knight’s right edge defence, which is one of the worst in the comp. With many troops out and both sides leaking points this season, the overs appeal as the logical play.
Suggested Bet – Total Match Points Over 50.5 @ $1.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.72) VS Parramatta Eels ($2.10) – Stadium Australia
Both sides leaked plenty of points last week and both will be desperate to bounce back here. This will be a tough physical game with defence the key driver but that will bring about problems from the officials. Both sides will go out there with the intention of defending but this game will open right up. Count the tries and count your cash.
Suggested Bet – Total Points over 50.5 @ $1.90
Canberra Raiders ($1.33) VS Brisbane Broncos ($3.25) – GIO Stadium
Brisbane are going with yet another pairing in the halves, this time Karmichael Hunt makes his return to the NRL, the last time he played in the NRL Instagram wasn’t even a thing. So, it has been a while. Both sides have shown zero interest in defence and as we have seen with these new rules, when you stop tackling the points pile up. Back the overs and watch the tries.
Suggested Bet – Total Match Points Over 49.5 @ $1.90
New Zealand Warriors ($5) VS Melbourne Storm ($1.17) – Central Coast Stadium
Not sure how Melbourne will line up with many coming back from Origin and a few already a bit banged up. The Warriors are without teen sensation Reece Walsh but are unaffected by Origin. The Storm were far from their clinical best last week and look likely to be below their best again, that opens the door for the Warriors to score points. This looks a free flowing, entertaining game of footy, happy to cheer the points.
Suggested bet – Total Match Points Over 50.5 @ $1.90
Parramatta Eels ($1.28) VS Wests Tigers ($3.70) – Bankwest Stadium
Neither side has been greatly affected by Origin but Parramatta will be without hooker Reed Mahoney, and his loss will be felt hard. The Tigers have managed to turn their season around and are playing some decent footy. This is a game they will fancy their chances and look a decent bet to cover the line.
Suggested Bet – Wests Tigers +11.5 @ $1.90
Canterbury Bulldogs ($4.25) VS St George Illawarra Dragons ($1.22) – Stadium Australia
It’s hard to go anywhere near the Bulldogs and their inability to score points. If the Dragons defence holds up, they should score too many points for the Bulldogs. Not a game I’m overly interested in but the Dragons to cover the line.
Suggested Bet – St George Illawarra Dragons -12.5 @ $1.90