The birds and the Airbnbees – It must be Spring! – Punt Club

HORSES

Randwick Race 5 – G3 Concorde Stakes – 1000m
#1 Nature Strip – $1.50


Yes, he is the obvious, but it is very hard to see any of these beating him. I’m not one to tip up odds on pops but I’ll be anchoring him in all my multis this weekend.

Randwick Race 6 – G2 Furious Stakes – 1200m
#12 De An Andretti – $9/$3


A lot of hype surrounds this filly, she was terrific on debut when winning a Hawkesbury maiden before being spelled. She has had two trials in the lead up to this and both have been outstanding. In her favour is the fact that most of these fillies are very evenly matched and she brings a different form line into the race. Maps well and looks great each way play.

Randwick Race 7 – G2 Tramway Stakes – 1400m
#1 Zaaki – $2.15


I’ll be honest, I went into this race looking for something to beat Zaaki, but I couldn’t find anything. His trial wasn’t flash to the eye but was very similar to stablemate Mo’unga, before he won the Group 1 Winx Stakes a fortnight ago. Zaaki is the class, and although he’ll be suited over further, he can round these up and finish over the top of them. I think we’ll see $2.50 or better bet late and we can bet up then.

Randwick Race 8 – G2 Chelmsford Stakes – 1600m
#5 Dashing Willoughby $31/$6.50
#14 Montefilia $13/$3.80


Incredibly tough race, there isn’t much between these WFA horses and luck in running will be crucial to deciding the result. I’m looking for a different angle into this race and for that reason, I’ll be having a small each way play on these two at odds. Dashing Willoughby ran in both cups last year without showing much, but is having his first start for the magician – C Waller. Trialled alongside Montefilia who brings last season’s 3yo form, which is Mo’unga form, who beat Cascadian and co last start. These two are worth a shy at the stumps at big odds.

Moonee Valley Race 5 – G2 McEwen Stakes – 1000m
#8 September Run – $3.50


She went around a $2.80 favourite in the Newmarket last prep, and although she ran below market expectations, she brings the Group 1 form into this. Her trial was a pass mark, but the speed looks hot in this and she can have the last crack at them. The one to beat.

Moonee Valley Race 8 – G2 Feehan Stakes – 1600m
#3 The Chosen One – $12/$3.60


Generally pulls out a run fresh. 1st up stats read 6:2-2-1 and he has run well in the last two first-up attempts in the Spring, 2 years ago he contested this race and ran very well, and last year he won an open handicap with ease. This looks like a very weak group 2 and I’m expecting a big run fresh. Love the booking of Damian Lane. 

NRL

Friday

Parramatta Eels ($13) VS Penrith Panthers ($1.03) – Cbus Super Stadium

The Panthers come into this at full strength while Parra have decided to field a reserve grade team. I love coaches throwing caution to the wind and building momentum into the finals by playing their big guns, Penny to win by 50. 

Suggested Bet – Penrith Panthers -28.5 @ $2

Saturday

North Queensland Cowboys ($7.75) VS Manly Sea Eagles ($1.08) – QLD Country Bank Stadium

Loving Manly coming into this at full strength a week before finals. They were very ordinary at times against the Dogs last week and I’m sure Des will be keen for them to start much better in this. The Cows have had a woeful season, looks like ending the way it started – in tears. 

Suggested bet – Manly -21.5 @ $1.90

AFL

Friday

Geelong Cats ($1.38) VS GWS Giants ($3.10) – Optus Stadium

These two will do battle in WA for a spot in a preliminary final. 6 of the last 7 times the Cats have lost a qualifying final they have bounced back with a win. The Giants managed to hold onto a 1 point margin and upset the Swans last week but their job has been made infinitely harder by the untimely suspension of Toby Greene, he was influential in the Giants win the last time these two met. Cats to cover.

Suggested bet – Geelong Cats -16.5 @ $2

Saturday

Brisbane Lions ($1.60) VS Western Bulldogs ($2.35) – Gabba

The key to the Lions chances here is the home ground advantage, this season they won 6 from 13 away games compared to winning 9 from 10 at the Gabba. If this was played in Vic, or anywhere else for that matter, I would have the dogs on top but it will be played at the Gabba and that can see the Lions get the job done.

Suggested bet – Brisbane lions -9.5 @ $2